SPR Arbitrage Simulator

Adjust the market parameters below to see how the choice of legal mechanism shifts the financial windfall between the U.S. Treasury and private refiners.

Crisis Oil Price ($/bbl) $100

Stabilized Price ($/bbl) $60

Volume Released (Millions bbl) 172M

Exchange Premium Rate (%) 5%

Scenario A: Traditional Drawdown Sale

Gov Revenue (Sold at Peak):

Gov Cost (Bought at Low):

Net Profit to U.S. Treasury:

Scenario B: The 2026 Exchange Model

Refiner Revenue (Sold at Peak):

Refiner Cost (Oil + Premium at Low):

Arbitrage Windfall to Refiner:

Value of Gov Premium Barrels:

SPR Exchange Arbitrage Simulator

Scenario A: Traditional Drawdown Sale

Scenario B: The 2026 Exchange Model